निवेश के बारे में तथ्य बनाम पूर्वाग्रह

पूर्वाग्रह किसी व्यक्ति द्वारा रखी गई एक अतार्किक प्राथमिकता है, जो अवचेतन मन के माध्यम से भी हो सकता है। निवेश में यदि हम पूर्वाग्रह के आधार पर निर्णय लेते हैं तो यह अधिक हानिकारक हो जाता है क्योंकि इसका सीधा असर हमारी संपत्ति पर पड़ता है। इसलिए निवेश में हमें तथ्यों को समझने की जरूरत है ताकि हमारे पूर्वाग्रहों/भावनाओं के बजाय सच्चाई के आधार पर सही निर्णय लिए जा सकें। इक्विटी निवेश के बारे में अधिक समझने के लिए यहां कुछ पूर्वाग्रह और वास्तविक तथ्य दिए गए हैं।

1. इक्विटी जोखिम भरी है

हां, यह अल्पकालिक निवेश या ट्रेडिंग के लिए सच है लेकिन जब हम दीर्घकालिक इक्विटी निवेश के बारे में बात करते हैं तो जोखिम काफी हद तक कम हो जाता है। कुछ अध्ययनों के अनुसार यदि हमने एसआईपी के माध्यम से निफ्टी 50 (टीआरआई) में निवेश किया है तो यदि निवेश अवधि 5 वर्ष है तो नकारात्मक रिटर्न की केवल 0.1% संभावना है और यदि हमारी निवेश अवधि सात वर्ष से अधिक है तो नकारात्मक रिटर्न की 0% संभावना है।

इसलिए इक्विटी में निवेश लंबी अवधि के लिए ही करना चाहिए।

 

2. सभी म्यूचुअल फंड इक्विटी फंड हैं

मोटे तौर पर म्यूचुअल फंड को तीन प्रकारों में वर्गीकृत किया जाता है: इक्विटी, डेट और हाइब्रिड फंड।

केवल इक्विटी फंड पूरी राशि इक्विटी में निवेश करते हैं जबकि डेट फंड केवल डेट उत्पादों यानी बॉन्ड, डिबेंचर, सरकारी सिक्योरिटीज आदि में निवेश करते हैं । हाइब्रिड फंड में इक्विटी, डेट, सोना, रियल एस्टेट आदि का मिश्रण होता है।

अंतर को समझने के लिए किसी विशेषज्ञ/सलाहकार से परामर्श लेना चाहिए और अपने निवेश की अवधि और जोखिम उठाने की क्षमता के आधार पर फंड का चयन करना चाहिए।

 

3. मेरा पैसा बैंक एफडी या कैश में अधिक सुरक्षित है

हां, जब हम अपना पैसा फिक्स्ड डिपॉजिट में रखते हैं, तो हमें एक निश्चित ब्याज दर मिलती है, जो इक्विटी के मामले में नहीं है। लेकिन हमें जो ब्याज दर मिलती है वह मुद्रास्फीति को मात नहीं दे पाती। सच तो यह है कि पैसे की क्रय शक्ति कम हो जाती है। आइए इसे एक उदाहरण से समझते हैं: अगर हमने एक साल के लिए बैंक एफडी में 7.5% ब्याज पर ₹100 का निवेश किया है तो साल के अंत में हमें ₹107.50 मिलेंगे। हालाँकि, मुद्रास्फीति के कारण, जिस वस्तु की कीमत ₹100 थी वह एक वर्ष के बाद ₹110 में उपलब्ध है इसलिए वास्तव में हमें ₹2.50 (110-107.50) का नुकसान हो रहा है।

इक्विटी एकमात्र परिसंपत्ति वर्ग है जो लंबी अवधि में मुद्रास्फीति को मात देता है।

 

4. मैंने इक्विटी में काफी निवेश किया है

तथ्य यह है कि हममें से अधिकांश ने अपनी कुल नेटवर्थ का 10% भी इक्विटी में निवेश नहीं किया होता है, लेकिन हम हर समय चिंतित रहते हैं। इक्विटी में प्रतिशत आवंटन की गणना करने के लिए हमें अपनी सभी संपत्तियां यानी रियल एस्टेट संपत्तियां, बैंक एफडी, पीपीएफ, ईपीएफ, सोना, इक्विटी आदि को जोड़कर कुल संपत्ति का पता लगाना चाहिए और फिर इक्विटी के प्रतिशत की गणना करनी चाहिए। हममें से अधिकांश ने रियल एस्टेट में बड़ा निवेश किया होता है और इक्विटी में सबसे कम निवेश लेकिन विडंबना यह है कि हम रियल एस्टेट मूल्यों के बारे में सबसे कम चिंतित होते हैं और इक्विटी के बारे में सबसे अधिक चिंतित रहते हैं क्योंकि इक्विटी की कीमतें दैनिक रूप से आसानी से उपलब्ध हैं जबकि रियल एस्टेट के लिए ऐसा नहीं है।

हममें से अधिकांश को मुद्रास्फीति को मात देने और जीवनशैली के खर्चों को पूरा करने के लिए अपने पैसे को बढ़ाने के लिए इक्विटी में अपना आवंटन बढ़ाने की जरूरत है।

 

5. मुझे अपने निवेश को रोजाना ट्रैक करना चाहिए

बहुत से लोग इक्विटी बाजार में कीमतों के उतार-चढ़ाव से प्रभावित रहते हैं। उन्हें लगता है कि रोजाना कीमतों की जांच करके वे सस्ती कीमतों पर निवेश करके और नियमित रूप से उच्च स्तर पर मुनाफा वसूली करके बाजार को समयबद्ध कर सकते हैं। सच तो यह है कि बाजार में समय का निर्धारण करना असंभव है, इक्विटी लंबी अवधि के लिए होती है और अगर हम लंबी अवधि के लिए निवेशित रहते हैं तो रोजाना ट्रेडिंग की तुलना में बेहतर रिटर्न मिलने की संभावना बहुत अधिक है।

पोर्टफोलियो मूल्य को रोजाना देखने से हम मुनाफा नहीं बढ़ाएंगे बल्कि केवल अपना रक्तचाप बढ़ाएंगे।

 

6. इक्विटी केवल अल्पकालिक इंट्रा डे ट्रेडिंग के लिए है

ऐसा नहीं है। वास्तव में इक्विटी में अल्पकालिक व्यापार /निवेश (ट्रेडिंग) अधिक जोखिम भरा है और कई अध्ययनों ने इसे साबित किया है। अल्पकालिक निवेश डेट उत्पादों यानी डेट म्यूचुअल फंड या शायद अल्पकालिक एफडी में होना चाहिए जबकि इक्विटी में निवेश लंबी अवधि के लिए होना चाहिए।

सावधान रहें, ट्रेडिंग अधिक रोमांचक लगती है लेकिन इसमें जोखिम बहुत अधिक होता है और हमें इन गतिविधियों के लिए अपने गंभीर धन के साथ खिलवाड़ नहीं करना चाहिए।

 

अंत में, निवेश एक गंभीर व्यवसाय है और हमें एक विशेषज्ञ से उचित मार्गदर्शन लेना चाहिए जो हमारी विशिष्ट आवश्यकताओं और जोखिम उठाने की क्षमता के आधार पर हमारे अल्पकालिक और दीर्घकालिक लक्ष्यों के आधार पर हमारा मार्गदर्शन कर सके।

Facts Vs Biases about Investments

Bias is an illogical or irrational preference or prejudice held by an individual, which may also be subconscious. In the investments, if we make decisions based on bias it becomes more harmful as it directly affects our wealth. Hence in investments, we need to understand the facts so that the right decisions can be taken based on truth rather than our bias/emotions. Here are a few biases and the real facts to understand more about equity investments. 

 1.      Equity is RISKY

Yes, it’s true for short-term investments or trading but when we talk about long-term equity investments the risk comes down substantially. According to few studies if we have invested in Nifty 50 (TRI) through SIPs there is only 0.1% chance of negative returns if the investment period is 5 years and 0% chance of negative returns if our investment period is more than seven years.

So, equity investments should be made for the long term only.

 

2.      All Mutual Funds are Equity Funds

Broadly Mutual funds are categorized into three types: Equity, Debt, and Hybrid funds.

Only Equity funds invest the entire amount in equities whereas debt funds invest only in debt products i.e. Bonds, Debentures, Govt Securities etc. Hybrid Funds have a mix of equity, debt, gold, real estate etc.

One should consult an Expert/Advisor to understand the differences and based on his/her investment horizon and risk appetite a fund should be selected.

 

3.      My Money is more Secured in Bank FD or Cash

Yes, when we keep our money in Fixed Deposit, we get a fixed interest rate which is not the case with equities. But the interest rate that we get could not beat inflation. The truth is that the purchasing power of money goes down. Let’s understand it by an example: if we have invested ₹ 100 in Bank FD for one year at an interest of 7.5% then at the end of the year we will get ₹ 107.50. However, due to inflation, the item which was priced at ₹100 is available at ₹ 110 after one year so we are actually at a loss of ₹ 2.50 (110-107.50).

Equity is the only asset class that beats inflation over the long term.

 

4.      I have invested so much in equity

The fact is that most of us have not invested even 10% of our total Net worth in equities but are worried all the time. To calculate the percentage allocation in equities we should add all our assets i.e. real estate properties, Bank FDs, PPF, EPF, Gold, equity etc to find the total net worth and then calculate the percentage of equities. Most of us have major investments in real estate and investment in equities would be the least but ironically, we are least bothered about real estate values and most worried about equities because the prices of equities are available easily daily whereas for real estate it is not.

Most of us need to increase our allocation to equities to beat inflation and keep our money growing to meet lifestyle expenses.

 

5.      I should track my investments on daily basis

Many people are obsessed with the price movements in the equity market. They feel that by checking the prices daily they can time the market by investing at cheaper prices and booking profits at higher levels regularly. The truth is that it is impossible to time the market, equity is for the long term and if we remain invested for the long term there is a very high probability to make better returns as compared to trading daily.

By daily looking at portfolio value we will not increase the profits but only our blood pressure.

 

6.      Equity is for short-term Intra-day Only

It is not. Trading and short-term investments in equities are riskier and a lot of studies have proved it. Short-term investments should be in debt products i.e. debt mutual funds or maybe short-term FDs whereas investments in equities should be for a longer time.

Beware, Trading looks more exciting but carries much more risk and we should not play with our serious money for these activities.

Finally, Investments are a serious business and we should take proper guidance from an expert who can guide us based on our short-term and long-term goals and on our specific needs and risk appetite.

Inflation: Is it Good, Bad or Ugly?

Black and White are interesting colours. In few occasion wearing a Black shows the sad situation while for some cases like in marriage or business meetings this is called the formal. Black is associated with Black Magic a negative thing but black long hairs are symbolised as beauty. Similarly white is colour of peace and sorrow for some religions while for some it is for the celebrations (i.e. marriage).

What does it means?

Well as I understand most of the things have two sides and different people look at it through different perspectives. For some it is a sign of happiness for some it may be a symbol of sad and bad things.

Inflation also has two sides, while few countries especially the growing/developing nations are fighting hard to reduce/control it, while on the other side there are countries form developed nations like Japan who are struggling to increase it. Interesting but true.

What actually the inflation is?

As a dictionary meaning Inflation means continuous rise in the prices at a broad level.

In the economic terms it is called as: too much of money chasing too few goods and services.

How Inflation Moves?

When the gap between demand for goods and supply of money is too high, it causes prices to rise at a breath-taking pace. While a low to moderate gap results in a steady but minimal rise in the prices.

So when Inflation can be called as Good?

When the Prices of goods and services in an economy rise moderately and linear way it will be considered as desired.

But why should the rise in prices can be good?

When inflation rise moderately, Companies invest more in their businesses to increase their production to meet the ‘higher’ demand for goods/services. Therefore, more manpower is needed which pushes wages upwards. Money invested in production capacities fetches higher returns, which in turn accelerates the shareholders’ returns as well. This way economy creates more employment opportunities and also increases the wealth of shareholders as well as improves the tax revenue for government. A kind of win-win situation for all the stakeholders.

How high inflation impacts?

Some time there is lot of money/liquidity in the economy which results into such s strong demand that despite investing massively in production capacities, corporations usually fail to meet the demand. This spikes the prices of goods and services resulting them to become almost unaffordable.

This in turn reduces the discretionary income of the majority of households resulting into buying lesser goods. Then Companies suddenly realise that they went overboard with production during the boom time and soon start realising their overheads are unsustainable. This results into layoffs of employees. As people lose jobs, demand for goods and services falls again, followed by the price reductions which someday jumpstarts the economic upswing again.

So, how much inflation is good?

There is no fix formula for it. It depends on that country’s economic growth as well as the rate of inflation elsewhere in the world.  As said earlier, usually, developing nations witness sharp swings in inflation and cost of capital due to lower income and scarcity of capital and other resources.

As the country becomes developed economies the inflation goes down and stabilizes. This is because Economic prosperity reduces price volatility especially the essential items as they are the items which are important but will have some limited demands. (A person will not start eating more if he becomes wealthy).

What is life style inflation?

There is one standard inflation figure which is published by the government agencies. But is it really the inflation number for every person in that economy. The answer is NO.

Every person is unique and has different life style and accordingly the consumption is also different for different persons.

For example a Non-vegetarian person will be more impacted by the prices of fish and meats whereas the vegetarian person may not have any impact.

Twenty years back we use to have one TV in a home now we need in every room. One landline telephone was not just serving the family but the whole area and now every family member needs to have mobile phone in fact many of us carry two-three phones. So the cost of phone lines might have reduced but due to higher consumption our bills have not. One year school fees in a good convent school today would be equal to the amount of total fees paid from Nursery to College thirty years back. Similarly in every aspect of our life our aspirations have gone up and hence the headline numbers have very limited relevance and every person has to analyse his/her own inflation based on their own life style and aspirations.

How it impacts our investments?

So while deciding our future financial goal we need to consider our actual requirements and what kind of inflation it has historically. For example the education fees/ medical expenses rise much more than the headline inflation numbers. Further it could be worse, if inflation spikes up for any reason at a time when our goal is up for the fulfilment. Therefore, make a point to be conservative about the estimation of return on your portfolio and be cautious about the estimate of inflation.

To reach our financial goals and beat the inflation we need to ensure that we are investing in those assets which have capability to beat the inflation Equities and Equity based Mutual funds are those which can give us higher than inflation numbers over a longer period of time.

To Conclude

Inflation is a number based on various economic and social factors, and every individual has a different inflation number based on his own life style and expenses. We cannot say inflation good or bad on its own but other factors make it a boon or a bane. To face high inflation we need to have a proper financial plan in place.