Saturday, 5 April 2025

सामान्य क्रेडिट गलतियों जिनसे हमें बचना चाहिए

आजकल क्रेडिट स्कोर बहुत महत्वपूर्ण है, अगर यह अच्छा नहीं है तो हमें अधिक ब्याज देना पड़ सकता है या कभी-कभी हमें लोन के लिए मना भी किया जा सकता है। तो आइए समझें कि अच्छा क्रेडिट स्कोर बनाए रखने के लिए हमें क्या करना चाहिए।

 

1. अपने बिल का भुगतान समय पर करें

हमें अपने बकाया बिलों का भुगतान करते समय बहुत सावधान रहना चाहिए। एक भी भुगतान चूकने से आपकी क्रेडिट प्रोफ़ाइल पर नकारात्मक प्रभाव पड़ सकता है। बकाया भुगतान कई वर्षों तक क्रेडिट रिपोर्ट पर दिखाई देते हैं, हालांकि नई सकारात्मक कार्रवाइयों के जुड़ने से समय के साथ इसका प्रभाव कम हो जाता है। फिर भी, एक बार जब बकाया भुगतान आपके रिकॉर्ड में दर्ज हो जाता है, तो वे आपकी क्रेडिट प्रगति को रोक देते हैं।

भुगतान अनुस्मारक सेट करना एक अच्छी युक्ति है, इससे भी बेहतर यह है कि जिस खाते से आप भुगतान करते हैं उसमें एक ऑटोपे सुविधा स्थापित करें, साथ में यह सुनिश्चित करें कि ऑटो डेबिट को कवर करने के लिए हर महीने आपके खाते में पर्याप्त पैसा है। 

 

2. 'न्यूनतम भुगतान' विकल्प का उपयोग न करें

आम तौर पर, क्रेडिट कार्ड बिलों में हम न्यूनतम देय राशि देखते हैं, लेकिन उस सुविधा का उपयोग करना न केवल जोखिम भरा व्यवहार है, बल्कि अंततः एक बहुत महंगी आदत है। लंबी अवधि में हर महीने अपना कर्ज चुकाने की तुलना में ब्याज पर आपको अधिक पैसा खर्च करना पड़ेगा (क्रेडिट कार्ड पर 36-48% प्रति वर्ष ब्याज और साथ ही जीएसटी भी लगता है)। इससे आपकी क्रेडिट प्रोफाइल को भी नुकसान पहुंचता है।  हर महीने केवल न्यूनतम भुगतान करने से, आपके क्रेडिट कार्ड पर अधिक बैलेंस हो जाता है। इससे आपका क्रेडिट उपयोग अनुपात बढ़ जाता है, यानी, आपके उपलब्ध क्रेडिट का प्रतिशत जो आप किसी निश्चित समय में उपयोग कर रहे हैं, जिसे अनियंत्रित छोड़ दिए जाने पर बहुत नुकसान हो सकता है। 30% से ऊपर का क्रेडिट उपयोग अनुपात आपके स्कोर को नीचे गिराना शुरू कर सकता है। तो, यह जितना कम होगा, उतना अच्छा होगा।

 

3. हर जगह लोन के लिए आवेदन न करें

हर बार जब आप लोन के लिए आवेदन करते हैं, तो ऋणदाता आपकी रिपोर्ट की जांच करने और यह निर्धारित करने के लिए पूछताछ करता है कि आपके आवेदन को मंजूरी दी जाए या नहीं। जब आप छोटी अवधि में कई ऋणों के लिए आवेदन करते हैं, तो ऋणदाता आपको अधिक जोखिम वाले उधारकर्ता के रूप में देखते हैं। इसलिए, अपनी क्रेडिट प्रोफ़ाइल को नुकसान से बचाने के लिए, बेहतर होगा कि पहले उचित शोध करें, अनौपचारिक रूप से विवरण प्राप्त करें और उसके बाद केवल उसी लोन के लिए आवेदन करें जो आपको लगता है कि आपके लिए उपयुक्त है।

 

4. अनावश्यक लोन न लें

हमें कर्ज तभी लेना चाहिए जब हमें वास्तव में बहुत ज़्यादा जरूरत हो। इलेक्ट्रॉनिक गैजेट्स, टाली जा सकने वाली छुट्टियाँ या ऋण पर लक्जरी कारें खरीदना कुछ ऐसी चीजें हैं जिनसे बचा जा सकता है। अनावश्यक ऋण लेने से आपके बजट को संतुलित करना और अपने भुगतान शेड्यूल को बनाए रखना अधिक चुनौतीपूर्ण हो जाता है। इसका सरल समाधान यह है कि आप लोन के लिए तभी आवेदन करें जब आपको वास्तव में इसकी आवश्यकता हो, जिससे आपको वित्तीय रूप से परेशानी न हो और बकाया भुगतान पर ब्याज/जुर्माने से बचा जा सके।

 

5. बिना उचित कारण के गारंटर न बनें

किसी मित्र या परिवार को ऋण पर गारंटी देते समय या सह-हस्ताक्षर करते समय हमें सतर्क रहने की आवश्यकता है। चूँकि यदि उधारकर्ता अपना भुगतान करने से चूक जाता है या देरी कर देता है तो यह आपके लिए एक समस्या बन सकता है। उनके ग़लत/खराब क्रेडिट व्यवहार से आपका क्रेडिट स्कोर नकारात्मक रूप से प्रभावित होता है। इसलिए, किसी भी ऋण पर सह-हस्ताक्षर करते समय आपको सावधान रहना चाहिए।

 

6. अपना क्रेडिट स्कोर और रिपोर्ट नियमित रूप से जांचें

अपने क्रेडिट स्कोर और रिपोर्ट की निगरानी करना और घटनाक्रम पर नज़र रखना न केवल आपको अपनी प्रगति पर नज़र रखने में मदद करता है, बल्कि इससे आपको संभावित समस्याओं का पता लगाने और उन्हें संबोधित करने में भी मदद मिलती है, इससे पहले कि वे आपके क्रेडिट प्रोफ़ाइल को महत्वपूर्ण रूप से नुकसान पहुंचा सकें। आजकल सभी क्रेडिट स्कोर कंपनियां साल में एक बार मुफ्त क्रेडिट रिपोर्ट प्रदान करती हैं, इससे आपको अपने क्रेडिट स्कोर के बारे में जानकारी प्राप्त करने और खुद को अपडेट रखने में मदद मिलेगी।

 

संक्षेप में, एक स्वस्थ क्रेडिट स्कोर प्राप्त करने में समय लगता है। एक बार जब आप इसे प्राप्त कर लेते हैं, तो अपने क्रेडिट स्कोर की जांच करना और नियमित रूप से रिपोर्ट करना, समय पर अपने बिलों का भुगतान करना, अपने क्रेडिट कार्ड की शेष राशि को कम रखना और गैर-आवश्यक ऋण से बचना जैसे अच्छे व्यवहार एक स्वस्थ क्रेडिट प्रोफ़ाइल बनाए रखने में मदद करते हैं। इसलिए सर्वोत्तम संभव क्रेडिट स्कोर प्राप्त करने और बनाए रखने के लिए ऊपर लिखी हुई क्रेडिट संबंधी गलत कदमों से दूर रहें।

Common Credit Mistakes we should avoid

Nowadays, a credit score is very important. If it is not good, then we may have to pay more interest, or sometimes we may even be denied a loan. So let’s understand what we need to do so as to maintain a good credit score.

 

1.      Pay your Bill on Time

We should be very careful while paying our outstanding bills. Missing even one payment can hit your credit profile negatively. Overdue payments show up on credit report for many years, although the impact on gets diminish over time with the addition of newer positive actions. Still, once overdue payments enter your record, they stall your credit progress.

A good tip is to set up payment reminders, even better, is to set up an autopay facility in the account you make your payments from, ensuring of course that you have enough money in your account each month to cover the auto debits.

 

2.      Don’t use the ‘Minimum Payment’ Option

Generally, in credit card bills we see the minimum due payable, but using that facility is not just a risky behaviour, it’s ultimately a very costly habit to get into. The interest will cost you more money (credit cards charge 36-48% P.a. interest as well as GST) in the long term than paying up your debt every month. This also damages your credit profile. By making just the minimum payment every month, you end up carrying a high balance on your credit card. This increases your credit utilisation ratio, i.e., the percentage of your available credit that you’re using at a given time, which could cause significant damage if left unchecked. A credit utilisation ratio above 30% can start to drag down your scores. So, the lower it is, the better.

 

3.      Don’t shop for loan everywhere

Every time you apply for loan, the lender makes a hard inquiry to check your report and determine whether to approve your application. When you apply for multiple loans in a short period, lenders may view you as a riskier borrower. So, to avoid damage to your credit profile, better first do proper research, get details informally and then only apply for the one that you think is a fit for you.

 

4.      Don’t take Unnecessary Credit

We should take loan only when we actually need it for some necessities. Buying electronic gadgets, avoidable holidays or luxury cars on loans is something which could be avoided. Taking un-necessary loans make it more challenging to balance your budget and to keep your payment schedule. The simple solution is to apply for credit only when you need it, thereby not stretching yourself financially and avoiding any build-up of interest/penalties on overdue payments.


5.      Don’t become a guarantor without due diligence

We need to be cautious while giving a guarantee or co-signing a loan to a friend or family. As it can become a problem for you if the borrower misses or delays their payments. Because your credit score gets impacted negatively by their delinquency/poor credit behaviour. Hence, you should be cautious when co-signing any loans.

 

6.      Check Your Credit Score and Report regularly

Monitoring your credit score & report and keeping a tab on the developments not only help you to keep track of your progress, but it also helps you to spot potential problems and address them before they can significantly damage you credit profile. Now-days all the credit score companies provide free credit report once in a year, this will help you to get the information and keep yourself updated regarding your credit score.

 

In short, getting to a healthy credit score takes time. Once you’ve attained it, good behaviours such as checking your credit score & report regularly, paying your bills on time, keeping your credit card balances low, and avoiding non-essential debt, helps maintain a healthy credit profile. So, steer clear of the credit missteps listed above to attain and maintain the best possible credit score.

Tuesday, 4 March 2025

Stock Market is Falling, is there any future left in the market?

In the last five months, market has fallen sharply. BSE Sensex which was 85,106 on 26/09/2024, closed at 73,141 on 28/02/2024 registering a fall of more than 14%. Mid Cap and Small Cap Index (Stocks) have fallen (22-25%) much more than the large-cap stocks/index during the period.

Most of the investors are worried, rightly so, due to the sudden fall in the market and want to understand, whether they should remain invested in such a negative scenario or exit by booking the losses. The current fall is attributed to weak corporate results, FIIs selling from the domestic market, Global trade tensions and uncertainty due to Trump’s higher tariff policies against major importing countries, Rising US yields making it attractive for FIIs to invest in home country etc. and few more.

Based on historical data, we conducted this study to understand the market's behaviour at previous falls and what the strategy should be in such a scenario.

We have analysed past six falls since 2000, so let’s look at them to understand it in more details.

 

1.  The DOT COM Bubble

Price Correction of 56% in 19 Months

14 Feb 2000: 5923 Points

21 Sept 2001 : 2594 Points

Time of correction: 2.3 years, before it made new high above 5923 Points

02 Jan 2004 – 5944 Points, i.e. recovered by 129% from the bottom level

14 Feb 2005 (5 years from earlier peak) :  6659 Points (Recovery of 156%)

12 Feb 2007 (7 years from earlier peak) : 13805 Points (Recovery of 432%)

 

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

 

Scenario-1 Investor-A

Scenario-2 Investor-B

Scenario-3 Investor-C

14-02-2000

5923.17

 

 

 

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

21-09-2001

2594.87

-3328.3

-56.19%

 

    43,808.81

    43,808.81

    93,808.81

02-01-2004

5944.23

3349.36

129.08%

 

 

 1,00,355.55

 2,14,893.66

14-02-2005

6659.64

4064.77

156.65%

 

 

 1,12,433.71

 2,40,756.91

14-02-2007

13805.36

11210.49

432.03%

 

 

 2,33,073.84

 4,99,086.40

  Profit/Loss  

 

   -56,191.19

 1,33,073.84

 3,49,086.40

 

Let’s look at three different scenarios and see what happens to the profits/returns.

Scenario-1, Investor A invests Rs. one lakh at the highest level and sells his entire holding at the bottom level books losses and exits from the market.

Scenario-2, Investor B also invests one lakh at the highest level but when the market goes down, he doesn’t do anything, just remains invested and sells his portfolio at the end of 5/7 years.

Scenario-3, Investor C also invests money at the same highest level as Investor A and B. However, he invests an additional Rs. 50,000 at the bottom of the market and sells his portfolio at the end of 5/7 years.

The results:

Investor-A simply books a loss of Rs. 56,191.19 on 21/09/2001.

Investor B- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 2,33,073.84 at the end of 7 years. By remaining invested for 5 years and 7 years his portfolio value is in profit of Rs. 12,433 and Rs. 1,33,073 respectively.

Investor-C- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 2,40,756 at the end of 5 years. If he remain invested for  7 years his portfolio value increases to Rs. 4,99,086 which is more than three times of his invested amount.

 

2. Global Financial Crisis 2008

Price Correction of 63% in 7.5 Months

09 Jan 2008: 20701 Points

27 Oct 2008 : 7697 Points

Time of correction: 2 years, before it made new high above 20701 Points

05 Nov 2011 – 20962 Points, i.e. recovered by 172% from the bottom level

09 Jan 2013 (5 years from earlier peak) :  19627 Points (Recovery of 155%)

09 Jan 2015 (7 years from earlier peak) : 27119 Points (Recovery of 252%)

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

 

Scenario-1 Investor-A

Scenario-2 Investor-B

Scenario-3 Investor-C

09-01-2008

20701.49

 

 

 

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

27-10-2008

7697.39

-13004.1

-62.82%

 

    37,182.78

    37,182.78

    87,182.78

05-11-2010

20961.98

13264.59

172.33%

 

 

 1,01,258.32

 2,37,421.22

09-01-2013

19627.16

11929.77

154.98%

 

 

    94,810.37

 2,22,302.68

09-01-2015

27119.63

19422.24

252.32%

 

 

 1,31,003.28

 3,07,164.48

  Profit/Loss  

 

   -62,817.22

    31,003.28

 1,57,164.48

 

The results:

Investor-A Simply books a loss of Rs. 62,817.22 on 27/10/2008 and exits from the market.

Investor B- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 1,31,003 at the end of 7 years. By remaining invested for 7 years his portfolio value is in profit of Rs. 31,003.

Investor-C- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 2,22,302 at the end of 5 years and at 7 years, his portfolio value increases to Rs. 3,07,164 which is more than double of his investment amount.

 

3. Crash of 2015-16

Price Correction of 24% in 12 Months

03 March 2015: 29634 Points

29 Feb 2016 : 22494 Points

Time of correction: 12.5 months, before it made new high above 29601 Points

17 March 2017 – 29601 Points, i.e. recovered by 31.60% from the bottom level

03 March 2020 (5 years from earlier peak) :  38142 Points (Recovery of 69.56%)

03 March 2022 (7 years from earlier peak) : 54931 Points (Recovery of 144.2%)

 

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

 

Scenario-1 Investor-A

Scenario-2 Investor-B

Scenario-3 Investor-C

03-03-2015

29634.87

 

 

 

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

29-02-2016

22494.61

-7140.26

-24.09%

 

    75,905.88

    75,905.88

 1,25,905.88

17-03-2017

29601.86

7107.25

31.60%

 

 

    99,888.61

 1,65,686.28

03-03-2020

38142.30

15647.69

69.56%

 

 

 1,28,707.50

 2,13,488.48

03-03-2022

54931.48

32436.87

144.20%

 

 

 1,85,360.96

 3,07,460.17

  Profit/Loss  

 

   -24,094.12

    85,360.96

 1,57,460.17

 

The results:

Investor-A Simply books a loss of Rs. 24,094 on 29/02/2016 and exits from the market.

Investor B- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 28,707 at the end of 5 years. By remaining invested for 7 years his portfolio value is in profit of Rs. 85,360.

Investor-C- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 2,13,488 at the end of 5 years. By the end of 7 years his portfolio value increased to Rs. 3,07.460 which is more than double of his investment amount.

 

4. Crash of 2018-19

Price Correction of 14.11% in 2 Months

28 Aug 2018: 38,760 Points

26 Oct 2018 : 33291 Points

Time of correction: 5 months, before it made new high above 38808 Points

01 April 2019 – 38808 Points, i.e. recovered by 16.57% from bottom level

28 Aug 2023 (5 years from earlier peak) :  64776 Points (Recovery of 94.57%)

28 Aug 2025 (7 years from earlier peak) : 73141 Points (Recovery of 119.7%)

 

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

 

Scenario-1 Investor-A

Scenario-2 Investor-B

Scenario-3 Investor-C

28-08-2018

38760.58

 

 

 

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

26-10-2018

33291.58

-5469

-14.11%

 

    85,890.30

    85,890.30

 1,35,890.30

01-04-2019

38808.74

5517.16

16.57%

 

 

 1,00,124.25

 1,58,410.37

28-08-2023

64776.92

31485.34

94.57%

 

 

 1,67,120.62

 2,64,407.86

28-02-2025

73141.27

39849.69

119.70%

 

 

 1,88,700.14

 2,98,549.65

 Profit/Loss  

 

   -14,109.70

    88,700.14

 1,48,549.65

 

The results:

Investor-A Simply books a loss of Rs. 14,109 on 26/10/2018 and exists from the market.

Investor B- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 67,120 at the end of 5 years. His portfolio value is in profit of Rs. 88,700 if he continues till the end of seven years.

Investor-C- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 2,64,407 at the end of 5 years. By remaining invested for 7 years his portfolio value increases to Rs. 2,98,549 which is almost double of his investment amount.

 

5. COVID Crash 2020

Price Correction of 38.74% in 2 Months

17 Jan 2020: 41850 Points

24 Mar 2020 : 25638 Points

Time of correction: 7.5 months, before it made new high above 41383 Points

06 Nov 2020 – 41383 Points, i.e. recovered by 61.41% form the bottom level

17 Jan 2020 (5 years from earlier peak) :  76,263 Points (Recovery of 197.45%)

Latest as on 28 Feb 2025 : 73,141 Points (Recovery of 185.27%)

 

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

 

Scenario-1 Investor-A

Scenario-2 Investor-B

Scenario-3 Investor-C

17-01-2020

41850.29

 

 

 

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

24-03-2020

25638.90

-16211.4

-38.74%

 

    61,263.37

    61,263.37

 1,11,263.37

06-11-2020

41383.29

15744.39

61.41%

 

 

    98,884.12

 1,79,588.22

17-01-2025

76263.29

50624.39

197.45%

 

 

 1,82,228.82

 3,30,954.57

28-02-2025

73141.27

47502.37

185.27%

 

 

 1,74,768.85

 3,17,406.15

 Profit/Loss  

 

   -38,736.63

    74,768.85

 1,67,406.15

 

The results:

Investor-A Simply books a loss of Rs. 61,263 on 24/03/2020 and exits from the market.

Investor B- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 1,82,228 at the end of 5 years. As on 28th Feb 2025 his portfolio value is Rs. 1,74,768.

Investor-C- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 3,30,954 at the end of 5 years. As on 28th Feb 2025 (despite 14% index fall in five months) his portfolio value is still at Rs. 3,17,406 which is more than double of his investment amount.

 

6. Crash of 2021-22

Price Correction of 17.37% in 8 Months

18 Oct 2021: 61624 Points

17 Jun 2022 : 50,921 Points

Time of correction: 5 months, before it made new high above 61643 Points

17 Nov 2022 – 61,643 Points, i.e. recovered by 21.06% from its bottom level

Latest as on 28 Feb 2025 : 73,141 Points (Recovery of 43.64%)

 

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

 

Scenario-1 Investor-A

Scenario-2 Investor-B

Scenario-3 Investor-C

18-10-2021

61624.65

 

 

 

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

 1,00,000.00

17-06-2022

50921.22

-10703.4

-17.37%

 

    82,631.25

    82,631.25

 1,32,631.25

17-11-2022

61643.27

10722.05

21.06%

 

 

 1,00,030.22

 1,60,558.29

28-02-2025

73141.27

22220.05

43.64%

 

 

 1,18,688.33

 1,90,506.40

   Profit/Loss  

 

   -17,368.75

    18,688.33

    40,506.40

 

The results:

Investor-A Simply books a loss of Rs. 17,368 on 17/06/2020 and exits from the market.

Investor B- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 1,18,688 as on 28th Feb 2025

Investor-C- Portfolio value increases to Rs. 1,90,506 as of 28th Feb 2025. Despite so much fall in five months, his portfolio value is still a profit of Rs. 40,506. Although he has completed only 3.4 years in investments.

 

7. Present Crisis

Price Correction of 14.06% in 5 Months

26 Sep 2024: 85,106 Points

Latest as on 28 Feb 2025 : 73,141 Points

How much will it fall further??? Honestly, no one knows !!!

Date

BSE Sensex

Change in Points

% Change

26-09-2024

85106.74

 

 

28-02-2025

73141.27

-11965.5

-14.06%

 

Key Learnings are:

1.    Market’s rise and fall is normal thing. In every few years it goes down by 10-15% (sometimes more) and recovers back. When the market falls, people will find reasons for that, however, nobody is so sure about it before the market falls, even if it is very much visible to us.

2.  Booking loss and exiting from the market at lower level is not a wise strategy, we will be converting the notional loss to real losses and will never make profit in such a scenario. 

3. Money invested in the equity market should be for at least 5-7 years, and we should have the flexibility to extend the same.

4. We cannot predict the peak and bottom of any market cycle. However, if we invest more when the market falls (i.e. 10-20% from its peak) chances are very high that we will get a decent return when it recovers back.

5. Investing in a diversified portfolio (Like BSE Sensex, mutual fund schemes etc.) reduces risk as compared to investing in individual stocks unless we are stock market experts and have time & resources to do proper stock-specific research.

6. Mid and Small caps which may give higher returns during a rising market, will be riskier as compared to Large Caps in a falling market. Hence, we need to diversify our portfolio rather than getting overexcited in small & mid-caps.

And Finally: Fall is temporary and Growth is Permanent, and if you hold your portfolio when the market is falling then losses are notional and Profit will be real.

 

Disclaimer: The above analysis and views are the author’s personal opinion based on historical data. The author and any of his associates do not take any responsibility if anyone makes any purchase/sale decision based on the above information. Please consult a SEBI Registered Investment Advisor/Research Analyst/Expert before making any kind of investment decision.