Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts

Saturday, 11 October 2025

निवेश के तीन आधार

जब हम निवेश की बात करते हैं, तो तीन प्रमुख स्तंभ होते हैं: रिटर्न, रिस्क, और लिक्विडिटी। हम इन्हें निवेश का त्रिपोड भी कह सकते हैं। आइए इन कारकों के महत्व को समझते हैं:

रिटर्न - इसका मतलब है कि आपका पैसा कितना बढ़ सकता है।

रिस्क - यह पैसे खोने या अपेक्षाओं को पूरा न करने की संभावना है।

लिक्विडिटी - इसका मतलब है कि मैं अपनी निवेश को बिना इसके मूल्य में महत्वपूर्ण हानि के, कितनी आसानी से उपयोगी नकद में बदल सकता हूँ।

निवेश के निर्णय लेते समय, हम में से अधिकांश रिटर्न और रिस्क पर ध्यान केंद्रित करते हैं, लेकिन लिक्विडिटी को अनदेखा कर देते हैं। यह एक समझदारी भरा निर्णय नहीं है; लिक्विडिटी को रिटर्न और रिस्क के समान ही महत्व मिलना चाहिए।

 

आइए हम व्यावहारिक रूप में लिक्विडिटी के महत्व को समझें:

मान लीजिए, हम रियल एस्टेट में निवेश कर रहे हैं, जो एक पसंदीदा संपत्ति वर्ग है। यह भौतिक और प्रतिष्ठित लगता है। लेकिन अगर किसी आपात स्थिति के कारण पैसे की आवश्यकता होती है, तो क्या हम इसे जल्दी बेच सकते हैं? जवाब अक्सर 'नहीं' होता है, या फिर हमें बाजार की कीमत से कम कीमत पर इसे बेचना होगा।

एक और उदाहरण:  दस साल की एकल प्रीमियम बीमा पॉलिसी। यह सुरक्षित लगती है, एक वादा के साथ आती है, और शायद टैक्स छूट भी देती है। लेकिन अपने आप से पूछिए — अगर आपको चौथे वर्ष में पैसे की जरूरत हो, तो क्या आपको बिना पेनल्टी, देरी या मूल्य में कटौती के पैसे वापस मिलेंगे?

 

निवेश के निर्णयों में लिक्विडिटी इतना महत्वपूर्ण क्यों है?

जॉब की अनिश्चितता या परिवार के मुख्य कमाने वाले की असामयिक मृत्यु जैसी परिस्थितियों में, निवेश की लिक्विडिटी एक अस्तित्व का प्रश्न बन जाती है। उदाहरण के लिए:

1. परिवार के मुख्य कमाने वाले की अनुपस्थिति में, परिवार को तत्काल खर्चों जैसे स्कूल की फीस, चिकित्सा बिल, किराने का सामान, उपयोगिताओं, EMI आदि का भुगतान करना पड़ता है, और केवल नकद धन ही तुरंत इन्हें कवर कर सकता है।

2. नौकरी खोने या आय में कमी की स्थिति में, तरल बचत एक बफर के रूप में काम करती है जब तक कि एक नई आय का स्रोत स्थापित नहीं हो जाता।

3. तरल संपत्तियों का होना तात्कालिक बिक्री से बचने में मदद करता है: जैसे रियल एस्टेट या लंबे लॉक-इन उत्पाद जैसे एंडोमेंट पॉलिसी अगर तुरंत बेची जाएं तो इनके अच्छे दाम नहीं मिलते। लिक्विडिटी इससे बचाती है।

4. तरल संपत्तियाँ हमें आपात स्थिति में लचीलापन देती हैं। यह महत्वपूर्ण निर्णय लेने की स्वतंत्रता प्रदान करती हैं—जैसे पुनर्स्थापन, कौशल में बदलाव, या उच्च ब्याज वाले ऋण का भुगतान—बिना वित्तीय तनाव के।

5. तरल संपत्तियां मनोवैज्ञानिक सुरक्षा भी प्रदान करती हैं। अगर हमें पता है कि धन आसानी से उपलब्ध है, तो यह संकट के समय में हमें बहुत शांति देती है।

 

इसलिए, एक अच्छा वित्तीय योजना सुरक्षा (बीमा), वृद्धि (निवेश) और लिक्विडिटी (आपातकालीन फंड) का संतुलन बनाकार रखनी चाहिए। लिक्विडिटी के बिना, सबसे बेहतरीन संपत्तियाँ भी अनिश्चितता के समय में एक बोझ बन सकती हैं।

 

इसलिए अगली बार, किसी निवेश पर पैसे लगाते समय पूछें:

i) क्या इसमें लॉक-इन अवधि है?

ii) अगर मैं जल्दी बाहर निकलता हूं, तो इसका मुझे कितना नुकसान होगा?

iii) क्या मुझे लिक्विडिटी छोड़ने के लिए उचित मुआवजा मिल रहा है?

iv) क्या यह निवेश मेरी भविष्य की नकद प्रवाह आवश्यकताओं के साथ मेल खाता है?

 

याद रखें कि निवेश केवल धन बढ़ाने के बारे में नहीं हैं। इन्हें हमारे जीवन के लक्ष्यों की सेवा करनी चाहिए — योजनाबद्ध और अनियोजित भी (आपात स्थितियाँ)।

इसलिए अगली बार जब आप किसी "आकर्षक" निवेश उत्पाद पर विचार करें, तो केवल रिटर्न और सुरक्षा पर मत ध्यान लगाइए। जानिए कि क्या यह निवेश तब आपके लिए उपलब्ध होगा जब आपको इसकी सबसे अधिक आवश्यकता होगी।

The LRR of Investments

When we talk about investments, there are three Pillars i.e.: Return, Risk, Liquidity

We can call them the tripod of investing. Let’s understand the importance of these factors:

Return – means how much your money can grow.

Risk – is the probability of losing money or not meeting expectations.

Liquidity – means how easily can I convert my investment into usable cash without suffering a significant loss in value?

While deciding about the investments, most of us are focused to return and risk but leave liquidity without bothering about it. That is not a smart decision, liquidity also deserves same importance along with return and risk.

Let us understand the importance of liquidity in the practical world:

Consider investment in real estate, one of the favourite asset class. It feels tangible and prestigious. But if one needs money due to some emergency,  can we sell it quickly ? The answer is usually no or not without accepting a lower price than the market rates.

Another example:  A ten-year single premium insurance policy. It looks safe, comes with a promise, and may even offer tax breaks. But ask yourself — what happens if you need the money in the fourth year? Will you get it back without penalties, delays, or a haircut in value?

 

So, why is liquidity so important in investment decisions?

In situations like job uncertainty or the untimely death of the main breadwinner, liquidity of the investments becomes a survival factor.  For example:

1.    In the absence of the main breadwinner of the family, the family needs to pay for the Immediate expenses like school fees, medical bills, groceries, utilities, EMIs etc., and only liquid assets can cover these on an immediate basis.

2.    At a job loss situation or reduced income flow, liquid savings act as a buffer until a new source of income is established.

3.    Having liquid assets helps in avoiding distress sale: Illiquid assets like real estate or long lock-in products like Endowment Policies may fetch poor prices if sold urgently. Liquidity prevents this.

4.      Liquid Assets gives us flexibility in case of an emergency. It gives freedom to make critical decisions—like relocation, re-skilling, or paying off high-interest debt—without financial stress.

5.      Liquid Assets also provides Psychological Safety. If we know that funds are readily accessible, it gives us immense peace of mind during a crisis.  

 

Hence, a good financial plan should balance protection (insurance), growth (investments), and liquidity (emergency funds). Without liquidity, even the best assets can become a burden in times of uncertainty.

So next time, before committing money to any investment, ask:

       i)          What is the lock-in period?

      ii)          If I exit early, what will it cost me?

    iii)          Am I being rewarded adequately for giving up liquidity?

    iv)          Does this investment align with my future cash flow needs?

Let’s remember that investments are not just about growing wealth. They should serve our life goals — both planned as well as unplanned (emergencies).

So, next time before considering an “attractive” investment product, don’t look at just returns and safety.  Find out whether this investment will be there for me when I need it most.

Friday, 9 February 2024

रामायण से वित्तीय सबक

22 जनवरी 2024 को, अयोध्या में भव्य नए मंदिर में राम मंदिर का अभिषेक किया गया। राम को मर्यादा पुरषोत्तम कहा जाता है, वह हमेशा सही काम करते थे चाहे परिस्थितियाँ कैसी भी हों । इस मौके पर आइए जानें कि हमें अपने वित्तीय जीवन के लिए क्या अच्छे काम करने की जरूरत है।

 

1. अनुशासन विकसित करें :

भगवान राम ने जीवन में सही, जिम्मेदार और अनुशासित होने के लिए "धर्म" का अभ्यास किया। इसी सिद्धांत को अपने जीवन में लागू करें। अनुशासित वित्तीय जीवन के लिए समझदारी से बचत करें, सावधानी से खर्च करें और समझदारी से निवेश करें।

 

2. सलाहकारों को बुद्धिमानी से चुनें:

कैकेयी ने मंथरा की सलाह मानी जिसके परिणामस्वरूप बाद में परिवार अलग हो गया, कठिनाइयाँ, रिश्तों की हानि, पारिवारिक विवाद और अंततः रामायण हुई। राम ने हनुमान, जामवंत और विभीषण से सलाह ली और युद्ध जीता।

आकर्षक ऑफ़र और जल्दी अमीर बनने वाली योजनाएं बेचने की कोशिश करने वालों से दूर रहें, जो अपने फायदे के लिए सलाहकारों और कोचों के भेष में छिपे होते हैं।

 

3. आकस्मिकता निधि :

अप्रत्याशित रूप से, भगवान राम को 14 साल के लिए 'वनवास' भेज दिया गया और उन्हें अपना आलीशान महल छोड़ने के लिए मजबूर किया गया। हर कोई जीवनशैली में ऐसे अचानक बदलाव के साथ नहीं रह सकता। अप्रत्याशित परिस्थितियों से निपटने के लिए पर्याप्त आपातकालीन निधि रखें।

 

4. धैर्य रखें/दीर्घकालिक सोचें :

'वनवास' के 14 वर्षों के दौरान, भगवान राम को सीता के अपहरण सहित कई उतार-चढ़ाव का सामना करना पड़ा। भगवान राम ने शॉर्टकट चुनने के बजाय धैर्यपूर्वक स्थिति अनुकूल होने तक इंतजार किया। लंबी अवधि के लिए निवेशित रहें, सफलता का कोई शॉर्टकट नहीं है।

 

5. अपना बजट निर्धारित करें :

अपने वित्तीय बजट की "लक्ष्मण रेखा" निर्धारित करें और सुनिश्चित करें कि ऑनलाइन छूट के लालच में इसे पार न करें। जरूरत और चाहत के बीच अंतर समझें.... आर्थिक रूप से अनुशासित रहें।

 

6. अपना जीवन सुरक्षित करें :

आप लक्ष्मण नहीं हैं, और आपके लिए संजीवनी लाने वाला कोई हनुमान नहीं है.... इसलिए जब आप स्वस्थ हों तो स्वास्थ्य और जीवन बीमा प्राप्त करें।

 

7. कर्म पर विश्वास रखें:

भगवान राम ने राजगद्दी छोड़ दी और 14 वर्षों तक वे जंगलों में रहे, लेकिन उनके अच्छे कर्मों का फल मिला और अंततः वे अयोध्या के राजा बने। इसलिए, अच्छे काम करते रहें और अंततः आपको अपने अच्छे काम का अच्छा परिणाम अवश्य मिलेगा

 

8. एक कोष बनाएँ:

भगवान राम, सीता और लक्ष्मण कुछ भी न लेकर अयोध्या से चले गये। रावण को हराने के उद्देश्य तक पहुँचने के लिए उन्होंने वर्षों तक धैर्यपूर्वक अपना नेटवर्क और वानर सेना बनाई। दीर्घावधि में मुद्रास्फीति को हराने के लिए, एक कोष बनाने के लिए धैर्य की आवश्यकता होती है।

 

9. अपनी स्लेट पोंछें और फिर से शुरू करें:

14 दिवसीय लंका युद्ध ने बुराई की हार को चिह्नित किया और एक नए रास्ते के लिए मंच तैयार किया। इसी तरह, अपने अतीत में लिए गए बुरे निर्णयों को भूल जाएं और अपनी वित्तीय यात्रा को सुव्यवस्थित करने के लिए सोच-समझकर निर्णय लें।

 

राम लला प्राण प्रतिष्ठा की हार्दिक शुभकामनाएँ

Financial lessons from Ramayan

On 22nd January 2024, Ram Manidir’s Consecration at the great new mandir in Ayodhya was done. Ram is called Maryada Purshottam, who does the right things come what way. At this occasion let’s learn what good things we need to do for our financial life.

 

1. Cultivate discipline :

Lord Ram practiced "Dharma" in order to be right, responsible and disciplined in life. Apply a similar theory to your life. Save judiciously, spend carefully and invest wisely for a disciplined financial life.

 

2. Choose advisors wisely :

Kaikeyi took Manthara's advice which later resulted in separated family, hardships, loss of relationships, family disputes, and eventually Ramayana. Ram took advice from Hanuman, Jamvanta and Vibhisana and won the war.

Stay away from those trying to sell Lucrative offers and quick rich schemes who are disguised as advisors and coaches for their own benefit.

 

3. Contingency Fund :

Unexpectedly, Lord Ram was sent to 'Vanvas' for 14 Years and was forced to leave his luxurious Palace. Not everyone can live with such sudden changes in lifestyle. Have an adequate emergency fund to handle unforeseen circumstances.

 

4. Be Patient/Think Long Term :

During the 14 years of 'Vanvas', Lord Ram faced many ups and downs, including the kidnapping of Sita. Lord Ram patiently waited until the situation favorable, rather than choosing shortcuts. Stay invested for the long term, there is no shortcut to success.

 

5. Set your budget :

Set "Laxman Rekha" of your financial budget and make sure not to cross it due to luring online discounts. Understand the difference between need and want .... be financially disciplined.


6. Secure your life :

You are not Laxman, and there is no Hanuman to get Sanjeevani for you.... so get health & life insurance when you are healthy.



7. Believe in karma :

Lord Ram left the throne and for 14 years he lived in forests, but his good deeds paid and finally, he became the king of Ayodhya. So, continue to do good things and finally you will get the good results.


8. Build a Corpus :

Lord Ram, Sita, and Laxman left Ayodhya with nothing. They patiently built their network and Vanar Sena over the years in order to reach the objective of defeating the Ravan. It takes patience to build a corpus, to defeat inflation in the long run.


9. Wipe your slate and start over :

14-day Lanka War marked the defeat of evil and set the stage for a new path. Similarly, forget bad decisions that you made in the past and make informed decisions to streamline your financial journey.


Happy Ram Lala Consecration

Saturday, 16 May 2020

Lessons and Life after COVID-19


Today the whole world is facing a unique challenge due to COVID19 virus. Just three months back If someone has told us that the whole world will stop and people will be afraid of meeting other persons, we would have been laughing on them, but today it is the truth. But every dark side has brighter side too, so let’s look at what we can learn from this crisis and how the life would be after we sail through this challenge.

1) Always act before it is too late. Starting the lockdown early is perhaps the biggest lesson for controlling the spread of the virus. Start your investment journey early to control poverty and create wealth.

2) Even if ‘Risk’ looms large (next to your home) don’t go out, just stay put. Even if market volatility troubles you, don’t sell Just stay put.

3) You may be Rich but if you are Careless, Complacent and over confident the Virus or the Market will smash your ego and leave you in tatters.

4) Self-control and Resolve (सय्यम और संकल्प) are the key to reach your goals of defeating the Virus as well as Poverty.

5) Doing nothing is an important strategy to keep the virus away and keep your healthy. Similarly in Investment also sometimes Doing nothing is the best strategy.

6) Nature does not discriminate, whether it is the battle of health or wealth. Every community and Religion has Equal Opportunities to create wealth as well as catch the virus.

7) Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world and provides huge gain in wealth creation but huge pain by virus spread/creation.

8) Breaking the Chain is the only way to stall the virus. In investing too breaking the chain of SIPs will stall wealth creation.

9) First worry about life, then the world (जान है तो जहान है). In Investment also first focus on Safety, Liquidity and then on Returns.

10) Politics is the biggest enemy during these times. Like wise Speculation is the biggest enemy of investing. Like Politics Keep Speculation at bay.

11) Hygenie and Social Distance are important points to fight virus similarly porfolio hygine(simple and clean portfolio) and keeping distance from risky instruments is good for wealth.

12) Our immune system is the best protection against the virus. In wealth creation immune system comprising of Habits, Actions, Perseverance, Patience and Yearning for your goals (HAPPY) is best for wealth creating and thereby protection against inflation.

And finally I end with a small story. Once an 80 year old man came out of ICU and doctors told him that he is alright now and this a bill of Rs. 10 lakhs for 10 days in hospital. The old man cried, seeing the old man crying doctor said don’t worry if you don’t have money we will waive it off. For this the man says No, I am not crying for the bill I can pay all dues. I am crying because I have been breathing God’s Air for 80 years and never paid for it and now it takes 1 lakh per day in a hospital to use ventilator, Do you know how much I owe to God. I never thanked God for that.
When we breathe air freely we never take it seriously but when we go to hospital breathing oxygen costs money.

When we change the way to look at the things, the things we look at CHANGE. Gratitude is a strong, powerful and empowering emotion, we should be more grateful for the things we get in life.
Gratitude improves our immune system and makes us strong on the other hand stress makes us weak.

WHEN WE ARE GRATEFUL FOR THE THINGS IN OUR LIFE, WE WILL HAVE MORE THINGS TO BE GRATEFUL FOR.
Be Healthy and Safe !!

Sunday, 22 May 2016

Can equity be a fearless investment option?

The greatest enemy of any investment is inflation. In the developing economy like us we have to live with high inflation.  When we talk about inflation its not just CPI or WPI numbers as published by the government every month but there are various other services like what we pay to doctors, school fees, barber etc. which are not covered in the index but has a very significant impact on our investments and savings. It means that the inflation-adjusted interest rates that we earn from fixed-income investments like deposits etc are actually negative when compared to the real inflation rate that consumers face.
  
This inflation is due to structural and demographic reasons and could not be solved in a very short period. Hence it could be years before we get positive real returns from fixed income securities (FDs, bonds etc). In this scenario equity is one of the assets that has the potential to beat inflation to earn real returns. It is for this reason that we should have a significant exposure to investments in equity in any of the investment portfolio.

However when we talk about equity investments any normal investor’s first reaction is that it is risky. The risk of losing money is more dominant than earning and keeps most of the investors away. Further short term ups and downs and coverage by print and electronic media gives the impression that the investments will always be moving ups and downs without giving any stable returns. As the stock market goes up brings lot of happiness with the investors on the other moment as it falls they get devastated.

However when we talk about equity, this volatility is an illusion. How can this be? How can returns from a type of investment that is volatile be high and safe. The answer is to understand that the same thing can look very different at different scales.
Let’s take an example of a man playing with a yoyo going upstairs. Everyone watches the yoyo which is moving up and down but does not see that the man carrying the yoyo is actually going up. Similarly in reality, the returns from equity are not only high but they are quite safe too.

Let’s take another example. What is the coast line of India? The official answer is 7,517 km. But will everyone have the same experience awhile covering the entire coast line. from Gujarat to West Bengal. If an ant walked the entire distance, would it come up with the same answer as a man will walk through? And how about an aeroplane covering the same distance?.
In each of these cases the answer would be very different. The ant may come up with an answer thousand of km higher because it would follow each nook and corner of the coast at the scale of millimeters. A human being would follow it on a scale of feet and come up with a lower answer. An aeroplane would follow it only on the scale of many kilometres and would come up with a far lower answer.

Stock market volatility is a bit like this. If we track the markets everyday, we will see many ups and downs. If tracking it once a month, there will be fewer ups and downs. On the scale of an year, the ups and downs would be even fewer and if we look at the markets only once every two or three years, there would hardly be any volatility. Now, imagine the scenario once in a decade or for even longer periods.

Let’s see the two charts below. One is that of the BSE Sensex' daily movements from 1990 to 2015. The other is the same time period, but marked only once in five years!

Description: Equity Funds for Long-term Goals

The first graph can put the most intelligent and smart  investors also in a difficult and worrisome situation. However, the second graph is very smooth and shows practically no volatility.


For example is we had invested in stock market in 1990 and then checked the investments only once in five years, then sometimes it might have risen more and sometimes less but would have given positive returns most probably. Over longer time such as a decade or more, the movement of Sensex evens out, thereby reducing volatility in reality.
Like we cannot cover a 5000 km distance by a cycle but an aeroplane whatever risk it may look like similarly to cover our bigger financial goals over a longer period of time, equity is the best option.

The message for the investors is: that investing in stocks can lead to frequent losses only if we are a short-term trader. Over sufficiently long periods of time, it is  like aeroplane flying over the coastline. The little twists and turns that vex the ant are not your concern. But do we need to invest in equities directly? Its not required if we are not experts its always better to taken the services of experts. So to invest in equity sensibly and make money out of it, there's no need to actually get into stocks and shares ourselves--equity mutual funds will do the job for us.